What were the chances that the first nuclear blast would set the entire Earth on fire?


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Learn More: 
Reference paper: http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2015/ph241/chung1/docs/00329010.pdf 
Factor of safety: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factor_of_safety 
The weight of a butterfly: https://thebulletin.org/2015/02/the-weight-of-a-butterfly/ 
Nuclear war as a global catastrophic risk: https://regulatorystudies.columbian.gwu.edu/sites/g/files/zaxdzs1866/f/downloads/GW%20Reg%20Studies%20-%20Nuclear%20War%20as%20a%20Global%20Catastrophic%20Risk%20-%20JScouras.pdf
Inverse Compton scattering: http://venables.asu.edu/quant/proj/compton.html 
The impossibility of atmospheric fire: http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2015/ph241/chung1/
Bethe, Teller, Trinity, and the End of Earth: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/bethe-teller-trinity-and-the-end-of-earth/ 
Radiative processes in plasmas: https://www.lehigh.edu/~eus204/teaching/ME362/lectures/lecture05.pdf
Bremsstrahlung main losses: http://www.ira.inaf.it/~ddallaca/P-Rad_2.pdf